منابع مشابه
Forecast Errors in Service Systems
We investigate the presence and impact of forecast errors in the arrival rate of customers to a service system. Analysis of a large dataset shows that forecast errors can be large relative to the fluctuations naturally expected in a Poisson process. We show that ignoring forecast errors typically leads to overestimates of performance and that forecast errors of the magnitude seen in our dataset...
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The belief that one can exert intentional control over behavior is deeply rooted in virtually all human beings. It has been shown that weakening such belief - e.g. by exposure to 'anti-free will' messages - can lead people to display antisocial tendencies. We propose that this cursory and irresponsible behavior may be facilitated by a breakdown of neurocognitive mechanisms underlying behavioral...
متن کاملInvestor Sentiment and Analysts' Earnings Forecast Errors
W correlate analysts’ forecast errors with temporal variation in investor sentiment. We find that when sentiment is high, analysts’ forecasts of one-year-ahead earnings and long-term earnings growth are relatively more optimistic for “uncertain” or “difficult-to-value” firms. Adding these forecast errors to a regression of stock returns on sentiment absorbs a sizable fraction of the explanatory...
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Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The famili...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2016
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2814810